Monday, March 19, 2012

The Rasbey Rondezvous

James Rasbey, Jr. wants out of Independence County, Arkansas, and into the Big Easy. The catalyst was the option-sale by the Keraux group, who own the USBL's New Orleans Trojans. Thus the Trojans will be reverted to USBL/USSL ownership by April 1 for an eventual cost of between $70 and $100 million.

USBL franchises are not in and of themselves worth much these days, as the league likely runs at an operating loss, which would be much steeper if not for the above-market value media contract sold to Michael Barnett's SKSL family of networks. There has been a recent push to attack this problem through what is known as 'consolidation' -- uniting the organizations that comprise the USBL with ESFL affiliates. Ideally this is to be done through same-ownership operations (as exist currently with the three Long Island franchises, Detroit, Chicago, and Philadelphia). However, even when it can't, Secondary organizations are able to collaborate to produce economies of scale, cutting costs on rent, advertising, labor, and so on.

And so Rasbey provides the consolidation project with a new twist. The owner of the Walkers since 2005, he has of course been known as the main 'political' opponent to the hegemonic rule of Michael Barnett, organizing coalitions to challenge or stall Barnett initiative and filing suit against him in USSL court. But many interpreted his cowing to the $600M Western 'stimulus package' at the Owners Meetings in January as a white flag, perhaps seeing the inevitability of a Barnett-dominated track to the USSL future.

After the early January meetings, and the on-field success of the Walkers (who lost to Barnett's Sharks in the ESFL Championship Game), Rasbey spent many weeks largely out of the news. Rumors flew that he had decided to busy himself with other pursuits. But, in the last ten days, there has been a stunning reversal.

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Many have been amazed at Rasbey's ability to gather political power and powerful allies -- including, for a period, Michael Harrington, Jr. of the Long Island Amazin' -- despite owning a team in one of the smallest markets in the ESFL. Though endowed with a rich tradition, the Independence Walkers play in relatively remote Batesville, Arkansas. Their ability to attract about 30,000 fans per home game is a testament to this tradition, as it is done in spite of the resources they can draw from the local area rather than because of it. The Walkers' aforementioned tradition is also aided by their unofficial status as 'Team of the South', meaning their appeal extends far beyond the Northeastern Arkansas media market proper.

Despite all the nice things we can and have said about the 'niche town' of Batesville, their ceiling is necessarily limited, and like to already have been reached. Rasbey claims he has lost about $200 million dollars since 'buying in' to the ESFL in 2005, first through renovating County Stadium, and then through running one of the higher payrolls in the sport that has consistently outstripped team reveues (notably, he shelled out the big bucks for QB Elijah Banker, who he was able to woo to town for a temporary, 2 year, $45 million extension after acquiring him from the Boston Conquistadors in 2006 for several draft picks. The total outlay to Banker from 2007-2009 was about $60 million, and the Walkers were willing to offer him a 1-year extension for 2010 worth between $25 and $30 million, but Banker opted for free agency and a $105 million contract with the New York Seacooks).

With the Keraux family exercise of their option-sale (a means by which an ownership group may sell the team back to the USSL at a semi-fixed cost, often defined by team account balance and revenues) last month, Rasbey sees an opportunity. As this was not a 'nationalization', the USSL is not obligated by by-laws to seek out the highest bidder, though it may face pressure to do so from an increasingly active civil society back on the Island. The USSL would surely approve a sale of the New Orleans USBL operation to Rasbey at a reasonable cost, but he is not interested unless he can move an ESFL team there and create a joint operation.

And there's the rub. The USSL will strongly resist the move of the Walkers out of Independence, as it is one of the more successful franchises with one of the better-kept sets of facilities. While many within the USSL want to convince Rasbey to take the doomed Ithaca Champions down to Lousiana, there are multiple complications.

First, the team is loaded with debt dating back to 2008, when it was sold at $111 million. Normally the ESFL would seek a USSL 'write-off' of the debt -- i.e, a committment by the Island government to settle with creditors through its reserves of commodities and hard currency -- but this practice has come under fire through the organization of the antagonistic International Workers' Union, which is active on the newly built universities of the Island and positions itself as to the left of the ruling Communist Party. As such, Communist bureaucrats and politicians are hesitant to 'eat' another eight or nine figures of debt for the benefit of multimillionaire capitalists in the United States.

Second, an Ithaca relocation to New Orleans would severely damage the value of the Walkers. As stated earlier, a significant part of the Walkers' value is their appeal across the South, including Louisiana and Mississippi. A New Orleans franchise would have the capability to overwhelm the Walkers, who likely could not compete in revenue or in advertising.

All actors are aware of these factors, including Rasbey and whatever opposition he faces from within the USSL and ESFL. The Barnett axis is likely to attempt to obstruct such a consolidation at all costs, as it would transform Rasbey from a small-market thorn-in-the-side to a major market, multi-operation force, who has already displayed great political skills despite having been dealt a limited hand. Perhaps the only battle to be fought will be about money -- it is unlikely that a concurrent Ithaca relocation to Independence and rebranding as the Walkers third incarnation would work, as the pressure of Ithaca debt, Independence depreciation as a result of the new Rasbey-rival to the South, and the decimated Ithaca football roster combine to form a perfect storm of negative value.

And so, if the lone solution here is to put Ithaca in New Orleans, sell both to Rasbey, and allow the Walkers to go up for sale, plenty of questions yet have to be answered. How much of the Ithaca debt is the USSL willing (or politically able) to eat? To what degree will Rasbey be held 'responsible' for the depreciation of the Independence franchise resulting from an ESFL relocation to New Orleans? Though likely an inevitability, as a Rasbey-owned consolidated operation in a cultural and commercial hub can only be a good thing for the USSL in an objective sense, expect a great deal of inertia and no quick resolution to this unique and fascinating situation.